Middle East geopolitical crisis dominates with Strait of Hormuz closure driving energy volatility; Fed rate cut expectations diverge from market pricing.

We're looking at a geopolitical shock playing out in real-time. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the story—that's roughly 21% of global crude transit going dark, and tanker rates are screaming higher. Crude's being supported, but equities are nervous about the macro implications: stagflation fears mixed with rate-cut expectations that don't quite match current market positioning. The Reuters poll is interesting because it suggests the Fed still wants to cut, but traders are pricing something different. Watch energy names and defensives today. The EIA report at 6:30 PM matters for natural gas specifically, but in this geopolitical environment, it's secondary to the crude supply story. Fertilizer weakness is also a concern—we're hitting US planting season with input costs elevated. Gold is a natural bid here given the safe-haven bid, though the delay of Barrick's Pakistan project shows real supply stress in the sector. The disconnect between Fed expectations and market pricing could create volatility if we get any new escalation or de-escalation headlines.