Inflation & Macro Economic News Today
CPI, PPI, PCE, GDP, jobs data, and macroeconomic releases that drive Fed policy and market direction.
Latest inflation & macro events
Kalshi prediction markets show stagflation odds surged to nearly 40% by end-2026 (from 11% three months ago), driven by CPI hitting 3.8% YoY in April—highest since May 2023—and wholesale prices posting their largest annual gain since 2022.
Kalshi prediction markets show stagflation odds surged to nearly 40% by end-2026 (from 11% three months ago), driven by CPI hitting 3.8% YoY in April—highest since May 2023—and wholesale prices posting their largest annual gain since 2022. Traders assign 65%+ probability to inflation remaining above 4.5% through 2025, well above consensus forecasts of 2.8%.
U.S. beer volumes fell 6.3% year-over-year through May 2, significantly worse than the 3% declines seen earlier in the year.
U.S. beer volumes fell 6.3% year-over-year through May 2, significantly worse than the 3% declines seen earlier in the year. Higher gasoline prices are cited as a factor pressuring convenience spending, with California showing the sharpest deterioration. Weakness is spreading across beverages, suggesting broader consumer pressure as confidence hits multiyear lows.
U.S. beer volumes fell 6.3% year-over-year through May 2, significantly worse than the 3% declines seen earlier in the year.
U.S. beer volumes fell 6.3% year-over-year through May 2, significantly worse than the 3% declines seen earlier in the year. Higher gasoline prices are cited as a factor pressuring convenience spending, with California showing the sharpest deterioration. Weakness is spreading across beverages, suggesting broader consumer pressure as confidence hits multiyear lows.
Beef prices have reached new record highs, intensifying pressure on the Trump administration to address inflation through policy interventions.
Beef prices have reached new record highs, intensifying pressure on the Trump administration to address inflation through policy interventions. Rising meat prices reflect broader cost-of-living concerns that continue to weigh on consumer sentiment despite recent moderation in headline inflation.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that 2.6 million student loan borrowers defaulted in Q1 2026, with an additional 1 million defaulting in Q4 2025.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that 2.6 million student loan borrowers defaulted in Q1 2026, with an additional 1 million defaulting in Q4 2025. This marks the first major wave of defaults since the Covid pandemic moratorium ended, concentrated among older borrowers and those in Southern states.
US Consumer Price Index has surged, adding pressure on voters already burdened by elevated fuel and food costs.
US Consumer Price Index has surged, adding pressure on voters already burdened by elevated fuel and food costs. The article highlights sustained inflationary pressures across essential goods categories.
The US posted a smaller-than-expected budget surplus in April due to lower individual and corporate tax receipts.
The US posted a smaller-than-expected budget surplus in April due to lower individual and corporate tax receipts. This signals softer economic activity and tax collection, which could influence Fed expectations around growth and inflation.
Copper prices have rallied above $14,000 per ton, approaching all-time highs.
Copper prices have rallied above $14,000 per ton, approaching all-time highs. This reflects strong industrial demand and potential supply constraints in the global copper market.
Chip stocks pulled back sharply on Tuesday, with Qualcomm dropping 11%, Intel falling 7%, and the Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) sinking 3%, following a hotter-than-expected inflation print and rising oil prices tied to Iran tensions.
Chip stocks pulled back sharply on Tuesday, with Qualcomm dropping 11%, Intel falling 7%, and the Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) sinking 3%, following a hotter-than-expected inflation print and rising oil prices tied to Iran tensions. The selloff reversed recent gains driven by broadened AI enthusiasm beyond Nvidia, extending to CPU and memory chip makers betting on agentic AI demand.
Copper futures hit record highs driven by AI data center demand, with July-dated contracts settling at 6.531 (+1.09%) and London Metal Exchange copper reaching $14,021/metric ton.
Copper futures hit record highs driven by AI data center demand, with July-dated contracts settling at 6.531 (+1.09%) and London Metal Exchange copper reaching $14,021/metric ton. Citi strategist attributes the move to energy transition and AI-related demand, with a bull-case forecast of $15,000/metric ton.
U.S. stock futures held steady Tuesday evening as markets awaited Wednesday's April producer price index (PPI) release.
U.S. stock futures held steady Tuesday evening as markets awaited Wednesday's April producer price index (PPI) release. Earlier, stocks retreated from records after a hotter-than-expected April CPI reading and renewed U.S.-Iran tensions that lifted oil prices.
US inflation data has risen, putting pressure on Asian equity markets.
US inflation data has risen, putting pressure on Asian equity markets. The report suggests inflation remains sticky, which could influence central bank policy decisions and global economic outlook.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that U.S. credit card debt declined to $1.25 trillion in Q1 2026, down $25 billion from the prior quarter's all-time high, but remains up 5.9% year-over-year.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that U.S. credit card debt declined to $1.25 trillion in Q1 2026, down $25 billion from the prior quarter's all-time high, but remains up 5.9% year-over-year. The data reveals a persistent 'K-shaped' pattern in consumer borrowing, with divergence between affluent and struggling households.
Germany's inflation rate was confirmed at 2.9% in April, slightly above the ECB's 2% target but showing continued moderation from earlier peaks.
Germany's inflation rate was confirmed at 2.9% in April, slightly above the ECB's 2% target but showing continued moderation from earlier peaks. This is a routine monthly confirmation of preliminary data.
India's April consumer price inflation rose to 3.48%, marking the sixth consecutive monthly increase, though it came in below economist expectations of 3.80%.
India's April consumer price inflation rose to 3.48%, marking the sixth consecutive monthly increase, though it came in below economist expectations of 3.80%. The RBI has warned that Middle East tensions could exacerbate growth and inflation pressures, while the rupee weakened near record lows due to expected widening trade and current account deficits from higher energy costs.
Japanese households reduced spending in recent months despite continued wage growth, signaling weakening consumer demand and potential deflationary pressure.
Japanese households reduced spending in recent months despite continued wage growth, signaling weakening consumer demand and potential deflationary pressure. This divergence between rising wages and falling consumption suggests consumers are prioritizing savings over spending.
Australia is preparing a significant housing tax overhaul as part of budget reforms aimed at narrowing the country's deficit.
Australia is preparing a significant housing tax overhaul as part of budget reforms aimed at narrowing the country's deficit. The policy shift signals government efforts to address housing affordability while improving fiscal conditions.
Gold retreated from record highs as markets await key US economic data releases.
Gold retreated from record highs as markets await key US economic data releases. The pullback reflects profit-taking after gold's strong run and positioning ahead of critical macroeconomic indicators that could influence Fed policy expectations.
Gold retreated from record highs as markets await key US economic data releases.
Gold retreated from record highs as markets await key US economic data releases. The pullback reflects profit-taking after gold's strong run and positioning ahead of critical macroeconomic indicators that could influence Fed policy expectations.
Wall Street ended lower as a two-day rally fizzled following mixed economic data releases and renewed Fed messaging that suggests rates may remain higher for longer.
Wall Street ended lower as a two-day rally fizzled following mixed economic data releases and renewed Fed messaging that suggests rates may remain higher for longer. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all declined, reversing earlier strength amid investor recalibration of rate-cut expectations.
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