What is the FOMC?
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the Fed's monetary policy body. It meets 8 times per year to set the federal funds rate — the benchmark interest rate that influences everything from mortgages to stock valuations.
The three things that move markets
The rate decision itself — announced at 2:00 PM ET
The dot plot — quarterly projections of where each Fed member expects rates to go
The press conference — Chair Powell speaks at 2:30 PM ET, and his tone moves markets as much as the decision
How different assets react
Hawkish surprise (rates higher or held longer than expected)
Stocks: Bearish, especially growth/tech (QQQ, IWM hardest hit)
Bonds (TLT): Bearish (yields rise, prices fall)
Gold (GLD): Bearish short-term
Dollar: Bullish
Dovish surprise (rate cuts or softer language)
Stocks: Bullish, especially rate-sensitive sectors (IWM, XLF)
Bonds (TLT): Bullish
Gold (GLD): Bullish
Crypto: Bullish (risk-on flows)
Key terms to know
Hawkish: Favoring higher rates to fight inflation
Dovish: Favoring lower rates to support growth
Terminal rate: The expected peak of the rate cycle
Dot plot: Chart showing each FOMC member's rate forecast