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How Fed Rate Decisions Affect Markets

Understanding FOMC meetings, rate decisions, and how the Federal Reserve moves stocks, bonds, and crypto.

What is the FOMC?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the Fed's monetary policy body. It meets 8 times per year to set the federal funds rate — the benchmark interest rate that influences everything from mortgages to stock valuations.

The three things that move markets

1.

The rate decision itself — announced at 2:00 PM ET

2.

The dot plot — quarterly projections of where each Fed member expects rates to go

3.

The press conference — Chair Powell speaks at 2:30 PM ET, and his tone moves markets as much as the decision

How different assets react

Hawkish surprise (rates higher or held longer than expected)

Stocks: Bearish, especially growth/tech (QQQ, IWM hardest hit)

Bonds (TLT): Bearish (yields rise, prices fall)

Gold (GLD): Bearish short-term

Dollar: Bullish

Dovish surprise (rate cuts or softer language)

Stocks: Bullish, especially rate-sensitive sectors (IWM, XLF)

Bonds (TLT): Bullish

Gold (GLD): Bullish

Crypto: Bullish (risk-on flows)

Key terms to know

Hawkish: Favoring higher rates to fight inflation

Dovish: Favoring lower rates to support growth

Terminal rate: The expected peak of the rate cycle

Dot plot: Chart showing each FOMC member's rate forecast

Related tickers

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