Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most widely watched inflation report in the U.S. financial markets. Released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at 8:30 AM ET — typically between the 10th and 13th of the month — it measures price changes across a fixed basket of goods and services paid by urban consumers. The headline CPI includes food and energy, but traders focus overwhelmingly on Core CPI, which strips those volatile components out and gives a cleaner read on underlying inflation pressure.

Why does CPI dominate the trading calendar? Because the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target is measured against it. When Core CPI prints above expectations, markets reprice the probability of future Fed rate hikes or a delayed easing cycle. That repricing hits equities hard — particularly rate-sensitive growth stocks in QQQ — while pushing Treasury yields higher and strengthening the dollar. A cool CPI print does the opposite: Treasury prices rally, stocks break higher, and rate-cut expectations get pulled forward.

The 8:30 AM opening candle on CPI day is one of the most violent single minutes in the equity market. Futures can gap hundreds of points on a single one-tenth of a percent surprise. Retail traders should size down, wait for the first 15 minutes to settle, and then trade the direction that emerges. Watch the month-over-month Core CPI number first, then context it against the Fed's current trajectory.